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Tuesday afternoon tropical update

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Posted at 2:34 PM, Jul 09, 2019
and last updated 2019-07-09 22:31:03-04

Conditions look more favorable for tropical development over the next 24-48 hours as the low has now pushed into the Gulf of Mexico, so as the latest models come in here's how the forecast is shaping up.

The latest model runs from the two major global models (the GFS and EURO) are starting to come together when it comes to the track while the intensity remains a little tricky.

EURO model has a slightly higher intensity compared to the GFS, with a track that moves it slightly to the east of Acadiana which would be just the other side of the Atchafalaya Basin.

On the flip side the GFS is slight weaker but would have shift some of the impacts a little further to the west, which would be a little closer to Acadiana.

The impacts would differ slightly based on which scenario ends up playing out, but either way a portion of the Gulf Coast is looking at a tremendous amount of rain, leading to a flooding event.

EURO runs have been hinting at a 10-15" rain fall, with the highest amount toward New Orleans and the eastern half of Louisiana, on the other hand the GFS drags that higher axis of rain closer to Acadiana.

Impacts from winds will be a little trickier to nail down since that will largely be determined by the intensity of the storm (which again is the trickiest part of the current forecast) but the GFS indicates tropical storm forced winds in Vermilion Bay and along the coast, the EURO solution has winds closer to 30-40 mph a little more widespread.

Timing is starting to come together and confidence is growing that the major impacts will be arriving on Saturday and early impacts arriving by late Friday.

This is a tough part of the Gulf to forecast for so this situation will continue to evolve so make sure that you stay tuned to the forecast over the next couple of days.

Remember that we are on the part of the timeline when you need to be coming up with your plan so if you need to react to this storm you have the capability to do so quickly and effectively.