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Turning more unsettled this week; locally heavy downpours possible at times

Posted at 5:54 PM, May 16, 2021

After a quiet and dry weekend across the region, scattered showers and storms will be returning to the forecast.

Overnight lows will be mild in the upper 60s.

A few passing showers will be possible overnight as energy spills in from Texas.

With enough Gulf moisture and upper-level energy in place on Monday, we'll see a random scattering of showers and storms out there.

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HRRR Model

It won't necessarily be raining all day long, but those showers and storms will be lurking around the area.

As per usual in May, any one storm that does develop will be capable of putting down some locally heavy downpours.

Afternoon highs will settle into the lower 80s.

Similar set-up for Tuesday with perhaps rain chances a touch higher.

The pattern remains pretty stagnant through the rest of the week as we'll have troughing out to our west and a developing ridge of high pressure across the southeast US by mid-week.

That ridge will serve as a blocking mechanism and keep persistent shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across Texas, but some of that will spill over into Louisiana as well.

It does appear that the more extreme rainfall totals this week will be setting of more so into Texas.

However, a decent soaking still appears likely across much of Acadiana.

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Euro Rain Estimates

2-4" of rain with locally higher amounts will be possible through the end of the week.

Keep in mind that heavier thunderstorms that produce higher rain rates in a very short period of time are not often modeled well.

So, there could be hot spots of even higher amounts, especially farther to the west.

We'll continue to watch that for you throughout the week.

Rain chances slowly ease into the weekend, and certainly into the first half of next week as temperatures warm up.

That early summer feel will be back!

Y'all have a great week!

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