Acadiana's spring-like weather pattern will continue into the weekend with daytime highs slowly warming toward the lower 80s.
Changes will be on the way into next week as the sub-tropical jet stream edges into the region bringing a stalling cool front to the region early next week which will keep rain chances in the forecast for a good chunk of the week.
In the near term, it will be a fair and seasonably cool night for the area with lows closer to the mid-upper 40s. Some clouds and/or patchy ground fog may develop toward daybreak.
And after some morning clouds, Thursday will become mostly sunny into the afternoon with temperatures warming into the mid-upper 70s.
Much of the same can be expected Friday with afternoon readings pushing 80°.
This weekend should be a little warmer with highs in the lower 80s along with breezy southerly winds and a sun and cloud mix.
A few isolated short-lived showers may be possible this weekend, but rain chances are expected to stay near 20% or less.
The risk of showers and thunderstorms should increase Monday as a cool front approaches the region.
While it remains unclear for Acadiana/Louisiana, there may be a severe weather threat with the frontal boundary, but for now it looks to be north of the region...stay tuned for any changes.
Thereafter, the pattern looks to stay rather unsettled as the front stalls in the northern Gulf of Mexico while the sub-tropical jet stream remains overhead and will be accompanied by embedded disturbances keeping rain chances in the area through at least mid-week.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
Climate Notes: The winter of 2021/2022 for Southern Louisiana turned out to be one of the driest on record...coming after the wettest spring/summer on record.
Lafayette's rain totals December through February of a little over 7" of rain was the 3rd driest on record, while Lake Charles set the new record for low rainfall with just 5" of rain over the same period.
This is falling in line with a new observed pattern of wetter springs & summers and drier winters when comparing "normal" data from the late 20th century to the 21st century.
With our warmer global and local atmosphere, and warmer Gulf of Mexico water temperatures over the last 30 years, the atmosphere has been able to hold more moisture, producing more frequent and more intense rainfalls across the Gulf South particularly in the warmer months.
Meanwhile, the drier winters, while not completely understood, could be partially attributed to a more wavier sub-tropical jet stream (thanks to the atmospheric warming), reducing the number and length of wet periods across our region.
But the wavier jet, can also deliver sharper, more short-lived cold outbreaks, which we really did not experience this year, but have in recent winters.
Overall, Lafayette's spring and summer normals have become 10% wetter in the last couple of decades while winters have become roughly 5% drier...and overall, our mean annual rainfall continues to increase.
The past 9 months have fallen right in line with the newer climate paradigm where we experienced one of the driest winters immediately after the wettest May-August period on record (that dates back to 1893).
And you may also note, that the 2nd wettest spring/summer period came in 2019...and 2016 was not far behind either...a statistically undeniable recent trend that follows the unnatural climate change that we continue to observe.
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