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Severe weather risk for Acadiana into Sunday; another big outbreak into Mississippi/Alabama

Posted at 5:59 PM, Apr 18, 2020
and last updated 2020-04-18 23:33:14-04
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 2, 10pm 4/18/2020
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 1, 10pm 4/18/2020
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 2, 6PM 4/18/2020
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 1, 6PM 4/18/2020

Acadiana will see another threat of severe storms into Sunday...but like last weekend, storms are not expected to be widespread locally, with a much more substantial severe weather risk anticipated farther north into Northern Louisiana and then eastward int Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps Georgia.

In the near term, scattered showers and storms are expected across the Acadiana area through Saturday evening with a "marginal" risk of a few severe storms that could be capable of producing damaging winds and or some small hail.

Activity should diminish by midnight or sooner Saturday night with temperatures holding near 70 through morning all the while humidity will be on the rise as a warm front moves northward through the region.

Moving into Sunday, impressive thunderstorm dynamics will develop across the region as a low-amplitude short-wave trough aloft moving out of the West will ignite storms in Texas during the morning with storms migrating eastward into the afternoon.

While the short-range higher resolution models are not showing a whole lot in the way for storm coverage for the Acadiana area Sunday, we will still have to watch any storm cell that gets going as they could become severe in a matter of minutes!.

Meanwhile the Euro Model is much more bullish on thunderstorm activity...somewhere in between, is what the area may actually see.

Nonetheless, Sunday will be a "weather Alert" day across the area and make sure you stay "doppler aware".

Acadiana is hatched in for a "slight" to "enhanced" risk of severe storms Sunday, but there may not be many storms in the area to reckon with...but as mentioned earlier, anything that could fire-up in the area could produce some rotation, resulting in damaging winds, perhaps some rather large hail, and an isolated tornado or two.

The greatest risk of severe storms will be closer to the northern portions of Acadiana...and it would not be surprising to see the higher storm threat risks slide farther northward and away from Acadiana.

Meanwhile farther to the north, Northeast Louisiana, portions of Mississippi and Alabama are hatched in for up to a "moderate risk" (level 4 out of 5) for severe storms that could producing very large hail, large swaths of damaging winds, and perhaps several intense, long-tracked tornadoes...essentially in the same areas that took a pounding Easter Sunday.

And there may not be any rest for the weary as another "higher-end" storm system may impact the same areas Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Locally for Acadiana, Sunday will be another mixed bag for possible "severe weather" with morning clouds giving way to some intervals of sun. Temperatures will top out in the low-mid 80s Sunday.

Gusty South to southwest winds near 15-25 mph with a few gusts to 30-35 mph may be possible across the Acadiana area Sunday.

Rain chances Sunday will not be too terribly high, in the 50% range at best...so some folks may not see a drop of rain until a cool front crosses the areas into Sunday night.

The best dynamics for producing severe weather in Acadiana will be from mid-morning Sunday into the mid-late afternoon... that's provided any storms during that time-frame...the risk of severe weather should decrease locally into the early Sunday evening and will be much more diminished after dark.

Following this weather system look for a couple of nice days Monday and Tuesday while another system readies for the area late Wednesday/Wednesday night and into early Thursday, where there could be another, albeit low-end, severe weather risk here.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

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