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More sunshine with comfortable humidity this week/Updates on tropics

Posted: 4:17 PM, Sep 24, 2019
Updated: 2019-09-24 17:17:20-04
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Summer is holding on strong as highs will continue to be in the lower 90s for the rest of the week.

Thankfully, there is lots of dry air over the region allowing temperatures to cool quickly once the sun goes down making for some pleasant evening and mornings with lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

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By this weekend high pressure at the surface will begin to slide off to the east creating a return flow out of the southeast pushing a touch more moisture over Acadiana.

This extra moisture will result in a few more cumulus clouds during the afternoon and maybe a stray shower (10-20%) on Saturday and Sunday.

Next week the warm temperatures stick around with highs in the low, to possibly mid, 90s under mostly sunny skies.

While our weather is quiet the tropics remain active with 3 named storms and another disturbance that the hurricane center is watching.

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The one storm we will have to monitor is Tropical Storm Karen.

Tuesday afternoon Karen was moving over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands as a weak tropical storm with 45 mph, producing gusty winds and heavy rains to the islands.

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Once Karen emerges back out over the Atlantic the system should encounter a slightly more favorable environment causing the system to slowly strengthen.

The question with Karen is what happens after it gets back in the Atlantic.

Right now the models are still uncertain.

Most models agree in the short term that a ridge of high pressure will be sliding off the east coast later this week and into the weekend.

This ridge should block Karen's northerly motion causing the storm to become nearly stationary by this weekend.

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Beyond then that is where the models are having more trouble.

But for now we will go with the Euro which shows Karen eventually beginning to swing back to the west towards the Bahamas and Florida.

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The good news is the last couple runs keep Karen out of the Gulf and have the system riding up the east coast.

This is still a long ways out and a lot will probably change so we will still need to pay close attention to see how this system evolves over the next 5-7 days.

Also, in the Atlantic Tropical Storm Jerry is looking very disorganized with all the convection removed from the center.

The forecast track for Jerry shows it brushing by Bermuda on Wednesday sending breezy conditions and tropical showers to the island.

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After Jerry moves pass Bermuda the system will weaken and should dissipate over the open Atlantic.

Then in the far Atlantic Tropical Storm Lorenzo is holding at 65 mph but the whole system is quite large, nearly 900 miles wide.

Lorenzo should get better organize and strengthen Tuesday night into Wednesday becoming a hurricane and possibility a major hurricane by this weekend.

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Thankfully this powerful storm will stay in the open Atlantic and not threaten any landmasses.

Lastly, there is a little cluster of showers and storms in the Gulf by the Yucatan Peninsula that the hurricane center is watching but this disturbance only has a 20% chance of development as it slides to the west towards the east coast of Mexico.

These showers will not threaten us in Acadiana.