The threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms accompanied by a continued flood threat will likely last for Acadiana through Thursday.
Acadiana did receive a little bit of a break Tuesday after a 6-8 hour period of 6-10" of rain and at least 7 tornado reports Monday.
The periods of rain we saw Tuesday were comparatively light but portions of Iberia and St Mary parishes on eastward stayed quite wet.
Models, although not capturing the weather pattern well, which is typical for storm complexes along the Gulf in May, appear to be hinting that the risk of heavy duty showers and storms will return to the Acadiana area by Wednesday morning.
An additional 2-4" or more will be possible in isolated spots, keeping the threat of flooding possible due to our saturated grounds and at limit/high ditches, coulees and rivers.
Per the National Weather Service, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for all of Acadiana through Thursday evening.
Additional rain totals through that time frame could be in the 4-8" range, but isolated higher amounts will be possible...and the threat of locally heavy downpours may continue into Friday.
The rain estimates by the models over the next couple of days look quite wet, with the highest risk of flooding rains per the models down toward the Acadiana coast or offshore where the HRRR and GRAF models show up to 10-20" rainfalls.
This is a little disconcerting as we all know the models are not exact, and that hot spots seen in the data today could be displaced somewhere inland...we'll hope that's not the case, but it should be noted.
In addition to the heavy rain threat for Acadiana into Wednesday, there could be a few isolated strong to severe storms that may be capable of producing wind damage, hail and perhaps a very slim chance of an isolated tornado...per usual, when it rains...it pours!
After the possible threat of more rains Friday, the good news is that high pressure is expected to build in from the east this weekend...a pattern typical of when we are in tropical season, which should help to dry out the atmosphere and set-up what should be a much drier week next week.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
Climate Update:
Today's almanac for Lafayette shows 14.28" of rain to date this May.
This makes this month the 3rd wettest on record.
Top Mays here:
1 - 22.24 - 1907
2- 15.62 - 2004
3- 13.80 - 1946
4- 13.52 - 1980
5- 13.43 - 1991
6-11.13 - 1927
7- 11.03 - 2014
8- 10.69 - 1953
9- 10.12 - 1941
10-9.72 - 2017
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