Acadiana's foggy, mild spring pattern will continue into the weekend with changes arriving by Saturday night into Sunday as scattered showers and a few storms become a good bet.
Big changes in the pattern are still on for mid-late next week.
In the near term, a Dense Fog Advisory will be in effect for all of Acadiana starting Thursday evening at 9:00 pm and will continue through 10:00 am Friday.
Look for visibilities to drop to the 1/4-1/2 mile range by Thursday morning with a few spots going below 1/4 mile.
Temperatures overnight will be near where our daytime highs should be this time of year, in the mid-60s.
Friday morning fog will slowly lift to mostly cloudy skies by late morning with partly sunny and warm conditions anticipated into the afternoon.
Temperatures Friday afternoon should again reach the lower 80s...but depending on how quickly the fog burns off, the afternoon high temperature could approach the record of 83° set way back in 1894.
Little change in the pattern is expected into Saturday but a few disturbances will approach from the west flattening our dominant ridge aloft of high pressure and allowing for an increased chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms into Saturday night.
Highest rain chances look to arrive late Saturday night and dominate into Sunday morning...it appears that we may squeak out a quieter Sunday afternoon.
Rain chances this weekend will increase to the 70% range Saturday night into Sunday.
Although the rains this weekend are just out of the range of our high resolution models, the Euro is indicating some spots may get a good soaking of 1-2" by Sunday, while the GFS remains less impressed. Most of us should expect at least 1/2" of rain this weekend.
Thereafter, a big storm system will roll out of the Rockies early next week delivering wind, big snows to the north, and a substantial severe weather threat to the east with an accompanying cool front.
The Storm Prediction Center already as a slight to enhanced risk of severe storms for portions of Louisiana with this system Tuesday, with an enhanced risk as far south as Central Louisiana and edging into the northern Acadiana Parishes.
It appears that Acadiana will be mostly in the slight risk category, level 2 out of 5, while the enhanced risk to the north will be a level 3 out of 5...and this outlook is preliminary...the outlook area will change and there could also be a risk "upgrade" in the potential hot spot as we get closer to the event.
Next week's possible severe weather event may continue into Wednesday.
Portions of Acadiana could also see a pretty good soaking of a couple of inches with next week's system as well.
Behind the front sharply colder conditions are expected toward the end of next week into the following weekend, with highs getting pushed down closer to the 50s while lows could dip into the mid-30s.
Our long term ensemble models continue to indicate that cooler than normal conditions may persist or chill even further as we near Christmas...we'll see!
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