There's a lot of forecasts floating around on social media regarding the potential development of a system in the Gulf by the end of the week.
So I figured it was a good time to break down what we know, what we're watching, and what kind of impacts we may see in Acadiana.
An upper level disturbance that is producing a cluster of storms off the east coast of Florida will drift into the Gulf over the next day or two.
Once it's there it will be able to interact with a pool of atmospheric moisture and a stalled frontal boundary, at which point we may start to see a little more organization.
There's a few things to keep in mind, the first being that this is all happening pretty close to the coastline.
It would be much more concerning if something like this was happening away from land, and I think that coastal interaction will be a hindrance.
Shear will be moderate along the Florida Big Bend so there are some things working in its favor but this isn't a perfect environment.
The NHC has nudged its chance of development up a little and now it has roughly a 30% to become a tropical system in the next seven days.
What we'll want to see over the next few days is how far north or south this system drifts, if it stays further south we may end up seeing something that's a little stronger as it gets away from land.
If it's too close to the coast that would limit its westward drift and as a result you'd see rain chances drop in Acadiana.
As of Monday morning I'd say be prepared for a wet finish to the week and weekend.
Regardless of development or no development we'll get a spike in moisture which is going to lead to periods of heavy rain.
Starting Thursday and continuing into Sunday we'll likely get periods of widely scattered showers and storms which could lead to some localized flooding especially with the heavier rain rates.
Rain totals on average look to be around 2-3" through a several day time period, but I would expect pockets where those numbers could double.
This will be an evolving forecast so be sure to stay tuned to KATC through the week.
