Quiet in the short term but complicated long term forecast

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Posted at 4:06 AM, Jun 14, 2024
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There's very little change in the short term forecast.

Acadiana is still looking at a hot couple of days as we get into the weekend.

Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s Friday and Saturday with a heat index pushing into the triple digits.

Saturday looks to be a little hotter so be sure to drink plenty of water while you're out taking care of the lawns.

Skies will stay clear headed into Sunday but a surge of tropical moisture by the end of the weekend will completely change the pattern.

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This moisture will likely lead to a scattering of showers, at time fairly heavy, during Sunday afternoon/evening.

The bulk of the wet weather looks like it will hold off until Monday which will be full of widely scattered showers and storms.

Beyond Monday everything gets a little hazy since it's all going to depend on the tropics.

We're continuing to keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche for possible development of a low.

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Models seem to be in agreement that a low will develop there eventually but the strength, placement and timing of the low remains a mystery.

Not only do models seem split from each other, but the individual model runs seem to be changing indicating that they don't have a firm grasp on the set up.

This makes it tricky to nail down rain chances next week.

A tighter low earlier in the week probably limits our rain chances as moisture consolidates around the low, but a more disorganized storm with a widespread moisture field would mean plenty of rain for us beyond Monday.

Right now I'll keep widely scattered rain chances in the forecast pretty much every day this week, but I imagine there's going to be plenty of changing over the coming days.