9pm update on latest model data here:
A multi-day flood and a severe weather threat is expected to develop for Acadiana Tuesday afternoon and evening and will likely continue through at least Wednesday.
In anticipation of the heavy rains the National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for all of Acadiana from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday evening.
A slow moving upper low in the west will energize the sub-tropical jet stream across the Gulf Coast bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms that will be slow moving and tend to train over the same areas, especially into Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with more rounds of activity possible thereafter.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has the area hatched in for a moderate risk (level 3/4) for flooding rains Tuesday through Wednesday morning, and a slight risk (which could be upgraded) Wednesday into Thursday.
WPC & NWS estimate between 4-8" will be likely for most of Acadiana with isolated amounts possibly pushing 10-12" over multiple days.
The main act comes in Tuesday afternoon/evening with a lower end severe storm threat (per the Storm Prediction Center) with damaging winds, hail and perhaps an isolated tornado or two at the onset, but then will segue into a flash flooding situation later Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Model guidance rather concerning as well with hot spots exceeding 10-12" but where they develop will be different than guidance here, but somewhere locally in the Acadiana area there will likely be some flooding.
Outside of tropical season, some of our biggest floods can occur in May...and this may be one of them.
Activity is expected to be slow taper later this week with a nice and dry stretch of weather to follow from Mother's Day (Sunday) through much of next week.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest and stay with KATC for this developing, potentially serious weather event.
