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Thursday Tropics Update

Posted at 8:03 AM, Sep 13, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-13 09:25:53-04

It’s been a decade since the Atlantic Basin last had four named storms at the same time, but 10 years after the 2008 season we now have four named storms. Only two of these will be discussed with any sort of detail as Joyce and Helene are both poorly organized, weakening, and staying far offshore. The other two Florence, which if you’re reading this you’ve almost assuredly heard about, and Tropical Storm Isaac will be the two main topics of this discussion.

Hurricane Florence

Florence satellite
Thursday morning satellite of Hurricane Florence.

Any discussion of the tropics has to start with Hurricane Florence, who’s impacts are already being felt across the Carolinas. A strong Category 2 storm winds are over 100 mph and the gusts are hitting 130 mph, the amount of water this storm has pushed onshore will be the greatest threat. Water will be the biggest factor with life threatening storm surge and flooding rain as this system stalls out.

Florence track
The Thursday track for Hurricane Florence.

As soon as this storm hits it stops moving and could take several days to clear the Carolinas and drench communities from Georgia into Maryland as it dumps a tremendous amount of rain. Precipitation totals in some areas could be as high as 20-30″ worth of rain. This is a true natural disaster and thoughts are certainly with those along the east coast.

Tropical Storm Isaac

Isaac satellite
Thursday morning Tropical Storm Isaac satellite image.

Tropical Storm Isaac admittedly does not look great, on the radar it looks underwhelming and seemingly for days we’ve called for it to fizzle in the Caribbean. That option is still on the table certainly, but the day it looks like it will fizzle keeps getting pushed back which raises an eyebrow. There’s still a great deal of uncertainty with Isaac, and storms can do weird things in the Caribbean, so while it’s not an immediate threat it does look like something to keep an eye on.

Isaac track
Thursday morning track of Tropical Storm Isaac

This storm is now expected to die somewhere south of Cuba but these disturbances can kick up in the Caribbean. It’ll be something to watch for as the days go on especially this weekend when we’ll get it away from the islands a little. Most of the projections take that storm and kill it off in the Yucatan, and hopefully over the weekend that scenario will become more clear. In the meantime keep it in the back of your mind and maybe check up on it again over the weekend.