The tropics are starting to act up in the northern Gulf with impacts likely across Louisiana starting as early as Thursday.
There's a couple things worth pointing out, first is that there's no actual system just yet (and no guarantee that we even see one) although chances for development have trended upward.
Second is that until there's actually something to pin down there are going to be a lot of ifs and uncertainty.
That being said, Acadiana needs to be ready for periods of heavy rainfall starting Thursday and lasting into the weekend that could lead to some flash flooding.
There's two trains of thought with this forecast, one is that the blob stays mostly near the coastline as it advances west.
This would limit it's ability to strengthen and would bring heavy rain along the central Gulf Coast and into the southeast corner of Louisiana.
Acadiana would still see plenty of rain from this scenario but likely wouldn't be facing as large a flood threat.
You can get a sense of this solution from the GFS which still has a wet weekend but rain totals that are much more manageable.
On the other hand, a more southerly track would give the disturbance more time over warm Gulf waters and wouldn't be impeded by the land interaction.
This likely leads to a stronger, more organized storms which would bring some very heavy rain into Acadiana and increase our chance for flooding.
Monday night the EURO started to trend in this direction and can give us an idea of what we'd be looking at if it followed the more southerly route.
This would carry a greater risk for flash flooding, particularly Friday and Saturday as the storms shows some signs of stalling.
A word of caution, don't get bogged down by the specific numbers here.
Instead watch the axis of heavy rain and how it trends over time, small wobbles can lead to big impact changes.
The good news is that we haven't seen any models taking off and turning this thing into a hurricane, and tropical storm is likely the cap.
That doesn't mean we should watch it any less closely but it could help alleviate peoples fears that we're not staring at something major.
We'll know more once it's off the Peninsula and back out in the Gulf which unfortunately won't be until later today or tomorrow.
