Rain chances down, temperatures up for the 4th and getting hotter into the weekend

Posted at 4:41 PM, Jul 03, 2019

Drier more stable air will be moving into Acadiana over the next couple of days allowing for decreasing rain chances while temperatures will be on the rise.

Look for mostly sunny skies to return Thursday with temperatures topping out in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices will likely reach 103-106 during the afternoon of our 4th of July.

Risk of a rogue shower or thunderstorm should be down to 10% Thursday.

Fair skies, warm and humid conditions will be likely Thursday evening for fireworks displays with readings holding in the 80s while the heat index stays near 90...typical for the 4th for Acadiana.

The only mitigating factor holding back higher temperatures Thursday will be a nice afternoon breeze mostly from the south (some cooling effect from the Gulf)...but as high pressure builds into the region Friday into the weekend, our surface winds will turn more west-northwesterly (away from the Gulf) which will translate to higher temperatures.

Expect mostly mostly sunny and very hot conditions Friday into the weekend with afternoon highs reaching 96-97 degrees along with heat indices possibly pushing near "heat advisory" criteria of 105-110.

There could be some spots in northern Acadiana to Alexandria that could reach near 100 degrees this weekend!

Rain chances will stay near 10% or less Friday through Saturday but could increase to near 20% Sunday afternoon/evening if a weak disturbance aloft approaches from the northwest.

Next week promises more heat heat and humidity, but with partly cloudy skies, and a slightly better chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms. Rain chances should be in the 20-30% range Monday increasing to near 40% mid-late next week.

Rain chances could be higher than currently forecast mid to late next week, as there should be ample tropical moisture pooling along a frontal trough across the Northern Gulf of Mexico...but today's models are tending to drift this pool mostly to the east...but that could change in later forecasts.

Elsewhere in the tropics, while the Tropical Atlantic Basin remains quiet, Major Hurricane Barbara, sporting 140 mph winds in the Eastern Pacific, will gradually weaken over the next 5 days to a remnant low pressure system before threatening Hawaii.

Nonetheless, breezy conditions with some locally squally showers could impact Hawaii early next week.