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1 p.m. Delta Update

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Posted at 10:34 AM, Oct 07, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-07 15:05:56-04

The watches are arriving along the coastline now with Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches being posted along the coastline now with the arrival of hurricane conditions possible in the next 36-48 hours, and life threatening storm surge moving in ahead of the storm.

It will only be a matter of time before those watches get changed over to warnings and the coverage area to expand northward, so make sure that preparation continues today and is wrapped up by tomorrow evening.

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center continues to drift to the west in accordance with some of the latest model data, it continues to look likely that landfall will be between Sabine Pass and Vermilion Bay.

As far as intensity goes Delta will have a the rest of the day and tomorrow to regain strength to a major hurricane and with favorable conditions the storm should peak as a strong Category 3 storm before encountering stronger wind shear and some cooler water.

Unfortunately it won't weaken in time to spare us from major impacts and the storm is on track to make landfall on Friday afternoon as a strong Category 3 storm, and quickly weaken as it moves northward.

Now that the watches have been issued we can get better idea of the storm surge potential which seems to be right in line with our initial thinking with areas from Pecan Island to Port Fuchon, including the Vermilion Bay likely see 7-11 ft, along Cameron Parish a 4-7 ft surge is expected.

These numbers are based on the current track so any small track shift could result in those numbers changes, predicting storm surge is notoriously difficult so be sure to keep up to date with the latest numbers.

Along with surge winds will be a major issue the wind will be gusting around 50-80 mph in many areas along Acadiana, and wind gusts closer to 110-20 mph will be possible along the coastline as the storm approaches.

There's little change in the overall thinking regarding rain totals which still look to be around the 6-8" range on average with a few isolated areas picking up closer to a foot which would mean some localized flash flooding.

Expect hurricane winds to arrive as early as Friday morning with weather really going down hill through the day, we will be in the worst of it a little after lunch time and conditions should improve through the day on Saturday.

Again finish those preparations as early as you can, they should be completed by Thursday afternoon.

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