The tropics are really hitting their stride this week with the formation of T.D. 8 (which you can read about here) as well as Tropical Storm Gonzalo currently in the Atlantic Ocean.
Gonzalo has battled back some dry air over the last 24 hours and has shown some signs of developing into a strong Category 1 storm over the next few days as it makes the push into the Caribbean.
This storm will really struggle once it get's into the south Caribbean as it will hit a wall of dry air and high shear which will start working against the system, that's what will lead to the weakening hinted at in the track on Monday morning.
Once the storm starts to lose it's structure it will start to rapidly fall apart as dry air gets deeper and deeper into the core, models hinting at that remnant moisture moving into central America by the end of the week.
There's a little support for that moisture making it all the way into the Bay of Campeche and any moisture in the Gulf needs to be watched, but there's too much time between now and then to say anything with any certainty.
So the best course of action with Gonzalo is to keep it on the back burner for now, and check in on it maybe once a day to see how it's behaving and if there's been any major changes.
It's always a little treacherous stepping out into the extended forecast, but in this instance there is a little value as it looks like once Gonzalo fizzles the next storm will be right behind it.
A wave which is currently moving off the African coast seems like it has a significant shot at further development and based on the position of the ridge it may be one to watch.
Keep in mind it's not a guarantee that this will ever develop into anything significant, but it is something that should be monitored.
Once these waves get going they become a pretty steady stream so remember this is a long season don't get burned out putting all your attention on one storm or another, that's our job.
Instead check in with us and we'll keep you posted on the things you need to know, and the more we talk about something the more important it is that you know it. If we're not talking about something a whole lot chances are you can let it sit on the back burner.
