A recent poll conducted in Lafayette determined that Mayor-President Josh Guillory is "quite vulnerable" in his bid to be re-elected.
Guillory, who is wrapping up his first term in the office, faces Monique Blanco Boulet and Jan Swift in the October 14 race. All three candidates are Republicans.
The poll was conducted by Vantage Data House, a Shreveport-based membership organization that is non-partisan and doesn't work for candidates.
"We're a membership polling organization; members pay for polls together and we put them on our platform," says founder Bishop George. "This poll wasn't commissioned by any candidate. We don't work for candidates. We're not partisan. The data is just the data. We try to take as much of the bias out of the equation as possible."
If you want to read the poll, including the methodology, scroll down.
"The data from this survey indicate Josh Guillory is quite vulnerable in his re-election bid. A majority of voters give him higher negative than positive favorability ratings and 61% give him negative job performance ratings," the findings section of the report states. "Monique Blanco Boulet and Jan Swift receive at least a 2:1 positive to negative ratio on their image dimensions. Monique Blanco Boulet holds a slight advantage over Jan Swift at this point in the election cycle but either of the women are in an excellent position to defeat Josh Guillory in the run-off. It is clear from both the data related to “second choice” and the run-off scenarios that either Boulet or Swift will win this race. It is even more certain if one of these candidate is in a run-off with Guillory."
The poll surveyed 350 likely voters between September 10 and 12. They used cell phones, landlines, text messaging and the Kitchens Group voter panel. The margin of error for this survey is +/- 5.2% with a 95% confidence level, the report states.
Of those surveyed, 85 percent said they probably would vote in the October election.
Those surveyed gave Guillory a 61 percent negative job performance rating, with 33 percent giving him a positive rating and six percent unsure. When asked about their impression of a candidate, 51 percent had an unfavorable opinion of Guillory, 37 percent had a favorable opinion and 12 percent said they couldn't rate him.
For Blanco Boulet, 40 percent had a favorable opinion, 17 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 43 percent say they couldn't rate her.
For Swift, 40 percent had a favorable opinion, 12 percent had an unfavorable opinion and 48 percent said they couldn't rate her.
On a test ballot, if the election were today, those surveyed came down 25 percent for Guillory, 25 percent for Blanco Boulet and 19 percent for Swift. Another 31 percent were undecided.
In a run off between Guillory and Blanco Boulet, those surveyed came down 29 percent for Guillory and 47 percent Blanco Boulet, with 23 percent undecided.
In a run off between Guillory and Swift, those surveyed came down 29 percent for Guillory and 44 percent for Swift, with 25 percent undecided.
We reached out to the three candidates to see if they wanted to comment.
Here's the comment from Swift:
"Clearly, my message is what the citizens of Lafayette parish want. I’m a lifelong Republican conservative of 42 years who is ready to fight to end waste fraud and corruption in consolidated government and who is ready to open up the politics of our parish to the average citizen so a small number of connected people no longer are making decisions that benefit themselves while not benefitting the vast majority of our citizens. This is my fight for change. It is a fight being joined by many. I’m grateful!"
Here's the comment from Blanco Boulet:
“These poll numbers reflect the feedback we hear everyday: Lafayette wants leadership it can be proud of. I am the candidate with momentum because my record of integrity and success in public service is a direct contest to my opponent’s record of corruption and mismanagement."
Guillory's campaign asked us to use the following, which they say he posted on his Facebook page:
"THIS IS WHY NO ONE TRUSTS THE MEDIA! Earlier today, KATC 3 reported an “independent poll” with a headline saying my bid for re-election is “vulnerable.” After a quick internet search, it’s obvious the poll is bogus. They are flat out lying to you! Shocking, I know.
The so-called “non-partisan,” Shreveport-based organization that “doesn't work for candidates” who commissioned their first-ever poll, was created in June, and friends with my opponent. See his Linked-In
The “unbiased pollster” the organization hired is actually, by their own admission, John Bel Edwards’ pollster and communications advisor. See their website.
To make it even worse, their “poll” included 15% of people who aren’t even voting and a secret pay-to-play panel, that they won’t divulge. See crosstabs from poll
Here's another nugget from the poll... this is so woke I don't even know what it means: “The Kitchens Group developed methods of measuring the effects of the religious belief systems, subconscious gender and racial biases, and the psychological cross-pressures between economic and environmental concerns of the public.” See crosstabs from poll
This poll is so blatantly and patently biased, it calls into question the journalistic integrity of anyone who would report it as fact. Hopefully KATC retracts and issues an apology.
The media and my opponents think you’re stupid. They want you to believe we have no chance at winning so you don’t turn out to vote, so their liberal machine can take over and ruin our great community. They think you don't know but I know you do! It’s not going to happen.
If the media “polls” were accurate, we would have had President Hillary Clinton, for whom I’m sure my opponents voted. They were wrong then - they’re flat out lying to you now. "
Here's the report on the poll:
