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Heavy showers and active weather for Thursday

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Posted at 10:41 AM, Dec 31, 2019
and last updated 2019-12-31 11:41:36-05

It seems we'll be leaving behind the sunshine in 2019 and a round of active weather will kick start 2020.

New Year's Day, Wednesday, will be the transition day with clouds streaming into the area and blanketing the sky out ahead of the arrival of the showers.

The rain, however, will hold off until Thursday morning, but for those who are heading back to work after a long holiday season it will not be the nicest commute.

The above solution by the EURO Model is the most aggressive but has also stayed fairly consistent which would lead us to give it the benefit of the doubt, other models are similar looking as well but shift the axis of heaviest rain a little.

A few of the necessary ingredients required for severe weather will be in place so the radar will need to be watched closely for the possibility of a supercell or two capable of producing damaging winds and even a possible isolated tornado.

At this time the severe threat is relatively low with the areas most likely to see severe storms is slightly to our east, however, it is a little to close to comfort and those parameters could easily change over the next few days.

As it stands on Tuesday morning the biggest threat will be the threat of localized flooding as we may end up seeing 1-3" of rain with this system a few isolated areas could pick up closer to 4-5", flooding will largely depend on how fast that rain falls.

The above model runs a little on the hot side, but a system like this if it can tap into the Gulf moisture you can't rule out number like these, it will be interesting to see how this model trends over the next 24 hours.

Active forecasts are always situations that are influx so it's important to stay tuned to potential changes and we'll be sure to bring you the latest on KATC.