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Heat stays up, rain chances down into the weekend

Posted at 5:37 PM, Jun 18, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-18 23:42:08-04

Acadiana's typical mid-June heat accompanied by below normal rain chances will likely continue into the weekend, but by late Sunday into Monday, tropical moisture will arrive to the area and likely stay for several days, leading to a much wetter pattern into next week.

In the near term, look for another fair and quiet night through Friday morning with lows closer to 70 degrees.

Friday will bring another mostly sunny day with highs reaching the lower 90s accompanied by a slim chance of a thundershower at 10%.

Friday night will be a little more uncomfortable with lows inching upward into the lower 70s...normal lows this time of year for Lafayette is 73 degrees.

Saturday will be a repeat of Friday but likely a degree or two hotter.

Sunday will bring more of the same but add a little more moisture to the area, so expect fair to partly cloudy skies accompanied by a 20% chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.

Higher rain chances Sunday should be closer to Lake Charles/Southwest Louisiana and into Southeast Texas...but there could be adjustments to this part of the forecast for Acadiana.

By Monday, high pressure that has been anchored near the state will begin to drift away from us and closer to Florida allowing for a deeper plume of tropical moisture to work into the region.

In addition, a series of weak disturbance aloft will propagate west to east across the region, all spelling a good chance of scattered, primarily daytime showers and thunderstorms.

This pattern looks rather persistent through much of next week with drier more stable air returning to the area by Friday into the following weekend (maybe when we see some African dust mitigating some storm development).

For now, we have rain chances in the 60% or better range broad-brushed Monday through Thursday...but some days the chance will be higher and other perhaps a little less...but the bottom line we'll see a much more active radar pattern next week!

In spite of soggy conditions next week, it appears there is little concern for any flooding issues for the Acadiana area at this time...with the bulk of soaking rains looking to impact areas to our west into Eastern Texas.

Nonetheless, on any given day and with a slow moving storm, we can see several inches of rain and localized street flooding occur in a very short order!

At the very least, with the increased storm activity next week, don't be surprised if we get some reports of tropical funnels (especially when storms are developing at their onset)...it's par for the "pattern" course.

Meanwhile, the tropics remain very quiet with tons (literally) of African dust being tracked across the Atlantic Basin.

This dust will likely arrive to the Gulf of Mexico by midweek and Louisiana toward the end of the week into the following weekend which could eventually help to reduce the chance of showers and storms.

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