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Chance of development for tropical system has increased - to 50 percent

Courtesy National Hurricane Center
Posted at 11:26 AM, Jul 07, 2019
and last updated 2019-07-07 15:11:40-04

The chances that a trough of low pressure will develop over the next 3-5 days in the eastern Gulf of Mexico has increased to 50 percent.

The National Hurricane Center's latest update predicts that the trough of low pressure over the southeastern United States will move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few days.

This surface low will combine with upper-level winds to create the possibility of development as it meanders near the northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast through Friday.

The other thing that will help with the possibility of tropical cyclone development is that the waters in the eastern gulf are extremely warm in the upper 80s to lower 90s which will provide plenty of fuel/energy to help the system potentially turn tropical.

Looking at the latest models there is a lot of uncertainty with the track and strength of this potential system with nearly anywhere along the Gulf coast having a chance to see the system head their way, including Acadiana.

Thus this is something we will be watching closely but the biggest thing is wherever it ends up going next week they are looking at a heavy rainfall event, with rainfall totals between 5-10+ inches.