A few days ago NOAA put out their Spring Flood Outlook showing more than half the country having at least a 50% chance of flooding over the next 3 months.
This includes all of Acadiana having either a minor to moderate chance to flood this spring.
But don’t go racing out to get the sand bags just yet.
These long range forecasts can be deceiving.
When it comes to extended projections forecasters look at a variety of factors.
For Acadiana the biggest reason why we are under a minor risk for flooding is the potential for a heavy rainfall event to cause flash flooding at any time over the next 3 months.
As you know with our relatively flat land and poor drainage systems any heavy rainfall event in a short period of time can cause Acadiana to flood.
Thus, any time NOAA puts out these long range outlooks we are usually hatched in a low end threat for flooding year round.
Now, this Spring we have seen and are still dealing with flooding along the Atachafalaya and Mississippi Rivers.
Thankfully we have been fairly dry the last several weeks allowing these rivers to drain out and levels should start coming down in the next few weeks.
Also, looking at the long range models we are not seeing any additional rises for the Mississippi River because most of the floodwaters in Nebraska and Iowa overflowed or broke levees spilling out into the countryside and will not make it into the Mississippi.
So, widespread flooding does not look to be a big concern for Acadiana this Spring.