LAFAYETTE, La. (KATC) — After dipping to a four-year low just ahead of Memorial Day, gas prices may soon head in the opposite direction — and quickly — as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran in the Middle East.
Many drivers are asking the same question: Why? Especially when the United States imports most of its crude oil from Canada, Mexico and Saudi Arabia — not directly from the region in conflict.
To get some answers, KATC spoke with Stephen Barnes, Ph.D., a local economist in Lafayette Parish, who said the global oil market is far more interconnected than most people realize.
“The oil market is global and one of the hardest things for economists to predict,” Barnes said. “When there’s instability in one major oil-producing region, prices tend to rise everywhere, not because of an immediate supply issue, but because of fear that one could happen.”
That fear, often reflected in oil futures markets, can trigger a ripple effect at the pump, even here at home. And it’s not just about filling up your tank. Oil and gas prices also impact the cost of transporting goods throughout the supply chain.
Residents like James Williams said they’re already feeling uneasy.
“You gotta put gas to go to work. You gotta put gas so the kids can get to school,” he said. “It just keeps going up and down.”
According to analysts, if tensions continue or shipping routes near the Strait of Hormuz are threatened — a key choke point for global oil transport — Americans could see an increase of 10 to 25 cents per gallon, if not more, in a short period.
“Even if we’re not buying directly from the region in conflict,” Barnes said, “we’re still competing in the same market, and if prices spike overseas, we feel it here too. But many factors, including our own domestic production, could likely help cushion the blow.”
Still, the timing isn’t ideal for summer travel. After record-low prices before Memorial Day, many travelers were hoping for continued relief through the July Fourth holiday. But now, uncertainty looms.
“Honestly, to me, I think that’s quite insane, especially since I haven’t been driving that long,” said 16-year-old Phillip Couvillion of Lafayette. “If we could reduce gas prices somehow, I would love that — but you know, the economy.”
For now, gas prices in Acadiana remain steady, but economists caution the situation is fluid.
“Plan ahead,” Barnes advised, “and stay informed.”
