WeatherTracking the Tropics


Tropical Development Likely

NHC Says 80% Over the Next Five Days
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Posted at 7:36 AM, Jun 30, 2021

A disturbance over the central Atlantic Ocean is looking more likely to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next few days. This area of low pressure is still half way between the Windward Islands and Africa, but is moving west about about 20mph.

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Models for 97L Through Next Wednesday

According the the National Hurricane Center, the system is in an area that is favorable for development. Models are in agreement with a general westward movement heading through the Windward Islands over the weekend, then into the Caribbean. Extended models track the system south of Cuba into the western Caribbean about a week from today. The GFS has a strong system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico in about a week, while the EURO is considerably less robust. The next name on the list is Elsa.

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GFS Forecast Wednesday July 7

This isn't a place we like to see a tropical system because of the potential to move into the Gulf of Mexico. The western Caribbean and the southern Gulf are prime for tropical systems this time of year. No worries about it over the holiday weekend. But you should be prepared for tropical weather since it is hurricane season after all.