Very deep tropical moisture combined with weakness and instability in the upper atmosphere will continue to conspire to keep elevated rain chances in Acadiana's forecast over the next couple of days.
Although a bit of a break in the high rain chances may develop by Thursday, it appears that a tropical wave heading for the Gulf of Mexico could bring high moisture content and the threat of very heavy rainfall to the area by this weekend.
In the near term, forecast models remain bullish on another good chance of showers and storms tomorrow into Wednesday.
And because of the anomalously high moisture in the area, plus expected slow-movement of storms, some localized rainfall amounts could be in the 2-4" range in a few spots Tuesday, which could lead to some brief, localized street flooding.
Rain chances for our Tuesday will be in the 70% range, and 60% range for Wednesday with risk dropping temporarily to 30-40% Thursday, and perhaps into Friday.
The clouds and showers will also limit high temperatures across Acadiana to the mid-upper 80s over the next couple of days, while overnight lows stay in the very humid, mid-70s.
While the current deep moisture over the region will be decreasing later this week, we'll be watching a tropical wave/upper disturbance currently in the Northwest Caribbean heading for the Gulf of Mexico
This wave is expected to migrate into the Western Gulf by Wednesday and then drift slowly northward toward the weekend.
Models have not been supporting any tropical development with this feature, but some limited organization could be possible, with the risk of tropical depression formation only at 10-20% at most at this time.
This tropical wave/disturbance will be slowly moving toward the Louisiana Coast this weekend with the potential of very heavy rainfall either sitting just offshore...or slipping into southern portions of the state, and perhaps for parts of Acadiana.
While flooding rains are not overtly forecast at this point, it should be noted that accumulated 8-12"+ rainfalls may develop very close to the Louisiana Coast this weekend per the latest European Model...so this system (and computer model trends) bears close watch in the days ahead.