After closing the last week of May out on a dry and increasingly hotter note, June will start off much the same with fair to partly cloudy skies, accompanied by hot and humid conditions, along with the typical summer risk of a few widely scattered showers and storms into the afternoon.
The pattern for Acadiana shows little change in the overall meteorological regime through at least the next week.
Look for daily highs to reach into the lower 90s with the chance of scattered afternoon showers and some thunderstorms on any given day with rain chances spanning from near 10% to no higher than 40% on any given day.
Fair skies, warm and humid conditions with lows in the low-mid 70s are expected each night through this week, but by the weekend we may see a light northerly winds develop that could ease our dew points and morning lows just a touch.
The 2022 Tropical Atlantic hurricane season begins Wednesday with another busy season expected for the Basin with factors such as La Nina present and persisting in the Eastern Pacific, warmer than average water temperatures in the Atlantic (and Gulf of Mexico), and low amounts of atmospheric shear present all indicate a season that could be on par with 2020 and 2021.
This does not mean we'll see similar landfalls (and landfall locations) but the higher the number of storms, the more favorable it becomes for U.S. landfalls.
Dr Phillip Klotzbach will be updating his Colorado State forecast Thursday with anticipation of his numbers going up a bit since his April forecast where La Nina was less less certain.
Meanwhile in the tropics, the NHC is monitoring the remnants of former East Pacific Category 2 Hurricane Agatha (which made landfall Monday) as residual moisture gets caught up in a broad region of low pressure near the Yucatan.
NHC gives this feature a 70% chance of development into a depression over the next 5 days.
Any potential system is expected to advance to the northeast impacting Western Cuba, Florida & the Bahamas by the end of the week into the weekend.
Current model trends: Euro likes a more organized system, perhaps to a low end tropical storm (if so, name will be Alex), while GFS keeps any potential system disorganized.
Bottom line: No threats to Louisiana, plus GFS hinting at a possible front for us in about 8-9 days...for now, that is not in the 10 Day Forecast!
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