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Typical June weather pattern to continue in short-term; Attention turns to Gulf by late week

Posted at 4:58 PM, Jun 13, 2021
and last updated 2021-06-13 23:51:11-04

Energy from active showers and storms off to our north will try and move in later on this evening.

That could help to generate a few scattered showers and storms across the region.

There is actually a low-end risk that one or two storms could produce gusty winds, so we'll watch that.

Otherwise, it will be a mild and muggy night ahead as temperatures only drop into the middle 70s.

Some patchy fog will be possible in spots late tonight and into early tomorrow morning.

We'll see intervals of sunshine with a mixture of sun and clouds out there on our Monday.

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HRRR Model

Another hot and humid day as afternoon highs climb into the middle 90s.

A few pop-up showers and storms will be possible Monday afternoon with the heating of the day... We know the drill this time of year!

Much of the same going into Tuesday with perhaps a slightly better scattering of those afternoon storms.

Wednesday and Thursday we'll bring rain chances down to 20% as temperatures continue to get well into the 90s.

The end of the week and following weekend's forecast will start to depend on what transpires out in the tropics, specifically the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Unfortunately, since will are still about 5-7 days out, uncertainty in the forecast remains...

Be sure to check out my tropical breakdown below for the latest.

Have a great week!

In the Tropics:

We continue to monitor a decent amount of moisture and a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche.

This is the spot the National Hurricane Center gives a 50% chance of development into a depression in the next 5 days.

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NHC Outlook

It will be kind of long week of watching and waiting as moisture will stay pooled up down there for an extended period of time (at least through mid-week).

Eventually, that moisture will try and make a run to the north by late week between a ridge of high pressure to our west and troughing out east.

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Model Moisture

Regardless of any future development of the system, a heavy rainfall threat will be possible for portions of the Gulf coast as a plume of tropical moisture surges northward.

Yes, models have been kind of pointing in our direction, but that can certainly change since we are still a few days out.

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Model Moisture

Bottom line, high rainfall totals will be out there but whether that sets up across Acadiana or elsewhere is yet to be seen.

We'll watch the trends in the days ahead, so be sure to stay up to date with us for the very latest.

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