Tropical weather threat to arrive by late weekend into early next week.
Good Thursday afternoon everyone! A few scattered storms across the region this afternoon, but most of us are remaining on the drier and warmer side as highs top out in the lower 90s. Storms will begin to dissipate this evening and overnight tonight.
Lows once again on the milder side for Thursday evening into Friday morning as they drop into the lower and mid 70s.
Friday will be another typical June day as highs will sit in the lower 90s with about a 30% chance for an isolated afternoon thunderstorm or two.
The first half of the weekend looks rather quiet despite a few afternoon storms as we await the approach of Cristobal from the south in the Gulf of Mexico.
Rain chances and gusty winds start to increase as we head through Sunday afternoon and into the day on Monday as Tropical Storm Cristobal starts to impact the region. At this point, Sunday night into Monday morning is when we are expecting the worst of the weather from this storm. You can find much more on Cristobal below in the "in the tropics" section.
The good news is that conditions are looking to improve considerably in the area by the mid and latter part of next work week.
In the tropics: Cristobal remains a tropical depression this afternoon as it continues to be battered by land interaction and dry air from the west.
The next 24 hours will be crucial for the storm specifics in the days ahead. Thinking remains the same over the next few days though... the storm is expected to re-emerge back into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday before making a beeline for the northern Gulf Coast with gradual strengthening expected.
The storm will be influenced by a weak upper-level feature that will draw it northward. High pressure is then expected to develop over the SE U.S this weekend which will give the storm more of a NW movement as it nears the Louisiana Coast late this weekend.
At this point, I am expecting a moderate to strong tropical storm as it nears our coastline. A weak hurricane can not be ruled out, but the storm will be encountering a more hostile/unfavorable environment as it enters the Gulf (i.e. dry air and moderate wind shear).
Our biggest concern with the storm at this point is heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and the potential for storm surge. We can't rule out the potential for tropical funnels and weaker tornadoes especially near and east of the center of circulation. A rough total rainfall estimate is for most of the area to see around 3-6" with localized spots seeing higher amounts through next Wednesday. More specifics of exact impacts are likely to become more accurate in the next 24-36 hours.
Regardless of exact intensity, we need to prepare for tropical storm conditions this weekend into early next week. Continue to follow the KATC storm team for the very latest.