Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to spin in the central Gulf of Mexico this morning with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It is still moving along at a pretty good clip to the north at 14 mph. Forecast details have not changed a whole lot through the overnight hours and into Saturday morning.
General thinking is that the storm will continue to move northward through the day on Saturday before taking on a more northwestward movement as it nears our coastline on Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds in across the SE U.S. We are still expecting a moderate tropical storm at the time of landfall in Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm WARNING is now in effect for Iberia, Vermilion, St. Mary, and lower/upper St. Martin parishes at this time. This means that tropical storm conditions are likely in the next 36 hours.
Dry air continues to intrude on the western side of the storm which is limiting most of the deep tropical moisture to the eastern side of the storm. This, along with moderate amount of wind shear in the northern Gulf, will help to keep the storm's intensity in check and is why we are not expecting rapid intensification nor a hurricane with this system.
The impacts we are expecting here in Acadiana have also not changed much in the last 24 hours. Saturday will be another typical June day with highs topping out in the lower 90s and only about a 20-30% chance of an isolated storm in the afternoon. We will also start to turn breezy by the afternoon.
Sunday morning should remain on the drier side as well before we start to see rain bands move into the area by Sunday afternoon. Winds will also start to pick up on Sunday (especially later in the day) as well. They'll be sustained at around 15-25 mph with gusts to around 30-40 mph with localized higher gusts possible. The worst of the impacts are expected Sunday evening into Monday morning. Here's the latest impacts we are expecting in Acadiana:
It's important to keep in mind that the worst of the impacts will remain to the east of the center of circulation. Highest rain totals at this time are expected across SE Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Regardless, we are still in the mix to see our fair share of impacts with this system.
The good news is that as the storm heads out of our area early next week, drier and nicer weather will return to the region. A little light at the end of the tunnel if you will! Y'all have a great weekend and stay safe!