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Summer heat continues; tropics stay busy

Posted at 4:30 PM, Sep 07, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-07 23:27:54-04

Acadiana will continue to see plenty of late summer heat this week with rain chances staying mostly below normal until the weekend.

Scattered afternoon storms will become a little more likely this weekend while deeper tropical moisture edging in from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to lead to healthier daytime chances of showers and storms into next week.

In the near term, expect temperatures to drop into the lower 70s for daybreak Tuesday followed by mostly sunny and hot conditions for the afternoon.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to top out in the lower 90s.

Rain chances Tuesday will be near 10% and closer to 20% Wednesday.

Little change is expected for Thursday and Friday with highs in the lower 90s accompanied by rain chances near 20% or less.

Higher atmospheric moisture content combined with a little more instability should lead to a few more scattered afternoon/early evening storms this weekend with rain chances increasing to 30-40%.

Beyond the weekend, deep tropical moisture is looking to move into the Gulf of Mexico impacting portions of our area with good daily chance of scattered tropical showers and thunderstorms developing.

While there are not any overt signals at this point, the Gulf will be watched for the possibility of broad low pressure that could develop there next week.

Speaking of the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) upgraded the system in the far eastern Atlantic near the Cabo Verde Islands to Tropical Storm Rene Monday afternoon.

Rene could become a hurricane but is not expected to threaten the Western Hemisphere.

Meanwhile farther west in the mid-tropical Atlantic, Tropical Storm Paulette could become a hurricane down the line, but that is not currently forecast by the NHC.

It remains too early to tell whether Paulette could threaten the U.S., but after moving to the northwest toward the weekend, the system could turn back to the west afterwards...both the Euro and GFS do keep this system out to sea however.

Two other areas of interest include a disturbance southwest of Bermuda that has roughly a 30% chance of development...this feature looks to drift toward the general direction of the Carolinas later this week.

Yet another area the NHC is monitoring is a disturbance that won't emerge off of the African Coast until later this week, but the system already has a 50% chance of development by the weekend...this one could eventually become "Sally"...leaving Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred left on the alphabetical list for 2020...Greek alphabet will follow.

The tropical system (or systems) that develop behind Paulette and Rene may cross the Atlantic with a possible tropical threat to the Eastern Caribbean beginning in about 8-19 days time.

There remains a solid 4 weeks of prime-time hurricane season for Louisiana...and this year, the way the metrics have been looking, that prime-time season may get extended farther into October.

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