Acadiana will remain in a stormy pattern through Wednesday night with several rounds of showers and storms likely...thereafter, the weather will be much better later this week and into the holiday weekend.
In the near term, there looks to be a round of showers and storms into this evening, with some gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy downpours possible.
Thereafter the rest of the night should be relatively quiet until stronger storms arrive Wednesday morning.
Interestingly enough, Saharan Dust moved into the Acadiana area Tuesday and appeared to have mitigated some of the thunderstorm activity across portions of the area.
Dust in the region also changes the characteristics of storms when they do indeed form...the dust can enhance downdrafts resulting in stronger storm winds, and it can also lead to more electrical activity within the storms.
A strong disturbance aloft will approach the area Wednesday, will likely overwhelm the dust factor and clean the atmosphere out, and likely lead to a couple of rounds of storms Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The Storm Prediction Center does have Acadiana hatched in for a low end "marginal" risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe storms Wednesday into Wednesday night with the primary threat being damaging winds.
Severe or not, any storms will likely contain strong and gusty winds, frequent lightning and torrential downpours.
Latest model guidance suggests a stormy period primarily during the morning hours Wednesday with another round likely to develop Wednesday evening and night, with activity well east of the area by daybreak Thursday.
An inch or two of rain can be expected in most areas but there could be a few isolated hot spots that receive more and could lead to localized street flooding if and where storms are more persistent.
Expect clearing skies and much more pleasant weather Thursday into the weekend with sunny skies and seasonably comfortable temperatures anticipated.
Highs closer to the mid-upper 80-s along with comfortable morning starts in the 60s are expected Thursday , Friday and at least the first half of the weekend.
A more summer-like pattern should return next week.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
Meanwhile in the tropics, while no suspect areas are identified at this time, both the Euro and GFS models are suggesting some development in the Eastern Pacific this weekend but then a switch to a more disturbed pattern in the Southern Gulf of Mexico/Bay of Campeche toward the middle part of next week.
We'll keep an eye on this possible trend, but no worries for now.
And speaking of the tropics, NOAA and the National Hurricane Center issued their forecast for the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
And to no surprise, it is expected to be a busy season with NOAA citing that the ongoing La Niña is likely to persist throughout season, warmer-than-average sea surface temps in Atlantic & Caribbean will be present to fuel more storms, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds will lead to less shear and be more favorable for storms to develop, and that there is expected to be an enhanced west African monsoon which should shoot the seedling tropical waves into the Atlantic.
Busy season or not, it just matters where there storms will strike and make impacts, which is impossible to forecast. But statistically-speaking, more storms generally equals more landfall hits.
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