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Standard August forecast: hot, humid, scattered afternoon storms

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Posted at 4:19 PM, Aug 02, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-02 17:19:32-04

The forecast for Acadiana has settled into the typical pattern expected of early August: hot, humid with the chance of scattered afternoon showers and some thunderstorms.

The Acadiana area remains caught in a slight weakness aloft between a high pressure ridge situated over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles and a weak upper level low near the Florida Panhandle.

With little change in the overall pattern over the next 2-3 days, expect partly sunny, hot and humid conditions to yield to scattered mainly afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms this weekend into early next week.

Rain chances will be slightly better than "climatology" (30%) with probabilities closer to 40% over the next several afternoons.

Very little change in the pattern is anticipated through much of next week, but Friday's European Model suggesting a little more in the way of high pressure developing aloft toward the end of the week.

Fewer storms and hotter temperatures (at night and during the day) will certainly be possible later next week and into the following weekend.

But any forecast beyond 4-5 days right now has been swinging back and forth on whether this will occur, as persistent and more elevated rain chances may shift closer to the Northeastern Gulf vs. the Northern Gulf, depending on the strength and eastward extension of the aforementioned ridge.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

As for the tropics, the disturbance in the Atlantic may have missed its opportunity for development...although some slow development of this system is still possible, conditions are expected to become less conducive development closer to the Leeward Islands.

Friday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reduced the chance of development down to 40%.

Closer to home, disturbed but disorganized weather from Florida, through the Bahamas and extending off of the Mid-Atlantic Coast (in part being aided by the upper low near the Florida Panhandle) has been keeping tides elevated along the East Coast and plenty of storms in the region...no developments are expected here.

Meanwhile. in the Central Pacific, weakening Tropical Storm Erick is passing south the Big Island of Hawaii, while Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to miss the islands to the north as a weak tropical storm early next week.