WeatherTodays Forecast


Slight uptick in rain chances; two disturbances could threaten Gulf

Posted at 4:51 PM, Aug 19, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-22 15:45:03-04

After another hot one across Acadiana on Wednesday, temperatures will look to fall back into the lower and mid 70s overnight and into Thursday morning under clear skies.

The frontal boundary that moved through on Wednesday helping to usher in some drier air will slowly nudge northward on Thursday and is expected stall out across the area.

This may serve as a focal point for some showers and storms to develop later on into the day and evening, but the bulk of the activity may actually stay into Southeastern Louisiana.

We'll bump rain chances up slightly to around 30% as high temperatures settle into the lower and mid 90s.

The front will essentially break down into Friday, so rain chances will come back down, but as per usual this time of year, a few pop-up storms can not be ruled out.

Similar story heading into the first half of the weekend, before the forecast then depends on what transpires out in the tropics.

It is still too early to tell what exactly will happen with 97L & 98L out in the tropics, but it does appear that at least some of the moisture field associated with these areas will reach the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the weekend and into next week helping to give us added moisture.

So at this time we have raised the rain chances for next week, but again, that will solely be dependent on what takes place in the coming days out in the tropics. You'll want to stay with the KATC storm team for the very latest.

In the tropics: We continue to closely monitor 97L and 98L, both of which could impact the Gulf Coast at some point next week.

97L is positioned over the central Caribbean Sea this evening and has shown some signs of slow organization over the last several hours, although it remains somewhat disorganized.

Chances of development into a depression over the next 5 days for 97L remain at 80% as it nears the Yucatan Peninsula where environmental conditions are expected to be a bit more favorable.

The forecast track/intensity details then turn murky after that as models kind of have it moving anywhere along the Gulf Coast, but most guidance suggests that the moisture field associated with 97L will reach the area by early next week which could in turn help to increase our rain chances. The rest of the impacts (wind, surge, etc.) remain uncertain at this time until the system becomes a little better organized and we know for certain where it will head. We'll continue to monitor closely.

98L is located in the mid-tropical Atlantic and still has a 90% chance to develop in the next 5 days as it passes closely to the islands in the Caribbean.

The future of 98L will depend on what condition it is left in once it interacts with the islands, but most of the models continue to strengthen it gradually as it heads westward.

Very similar to 97L, it is still too early to tell where exactly it will end up, but with a general movement toward the Eastern Gulf, we'll have to watch this one closely as well.