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Risk of heavy tropical rains increase Friday/Saturday

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Posted at 5:24 PM, Aug 21, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-21 18:24:13-04

Scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms will continue for Acadiana Thursday, with deeper tropical moisture and the threat for heavier rainfall possible Friday into Saturday.

The weather pattern will stay essentially unchanged Thursday with partly sunny skies early giving way to above normal chances (at 50-60%) of scattered showers and storms in the afternoon.

Look for temperatures to top out Thursday in the upper 80s after another humid start in the mid-70s.

By Friday, a deep slug of tropical moisture associated with a tropical wave will begin to push into Coastal Louisiana allowing for more widespread, and likely, heavy tropical showers and storms.

This tropical feature will linger overnight Friday (where there will likely still be the threat of storms) into Saturday.

And while the European Model has backed off on high inland rain totals for Louisiana, with the bulk of heaviest rains staying offshore, there will still be the threat of heavy downpours, and at the very least the risk of localized street flooding Friday and Saturday.

It appears the most prudent forecast for Acadiana will be for rain accumulations between Friday and Saturday inclusive, to be in the 3-6" range...but isolated higher amounts will be quite possible.

Highest rain chances Friday and Saturday (80-70% respectively) looks to be along and south of the I-10 Corridor.

Rain chances will remain enhanced Sunday, but it appears northwesterly upper winds will sweep the tropical blob of moisture east of our region moving into early next week.

The risk of scattered showers and storms should decrease to the 30-40% range early to midweek, with the hint of a little back door cool front perhaps toward the end of next week and/or into the following weekend...fingers crossed!

Elsewhere in the tropics, weak Tropical Storm Chantal will die in the open Atlantic over the next few days, while a healthy tropical wave is coming off the African Coast...this wave will likely re-curve in the Eastern Atlantic.

Meanwhile closer to home, a tropical wave and upper low has entered the Southern Gulf of Mexico with this feature drifting northward and bringing the enhanced rain threat to the Northern Gulf Coast into this weekend.

Another tropical wave near the Bahamas has a low chance of development, but is likely to bring enhanced rains from the Bahamas and perhaps to portions eastern Florida through the Coastal Carolinas over the next several days.

The bottom line, no big storms are expected through the end of this month, but activity should be on the upswing sometime into September.