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Rain chances lower Wednesday after pounding Tuesday

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Posted at 4:03 PM, Jul 30, 2019
and last updated 2019-07-30 18:24:20-04

After several rounds of intense storms and flooding rainfall across portions of Acadiana Tuesday, it appears that rain chances should be lower and confined farther south Wednesday.

intense storms dumped upwards of 5-8" or more across portions of Rapides, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Allen, Evangeline and Northern St Landry Parishes.

These storms were associated with an upper disturbance that ran south-southwestward across the region Tuesday.

A few lingering showers or storms will be possible through the overnight hours as the upper disturbance nears the coast and then moves out into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday.

In the wake of this system, there will likely be more scattered storms Wednesday, but primarily across the coastal Parishes of Acadiana with some activity migrating farther northward during the afternoon.

Rain chances, therefore, should be closer to 40-50% for most of Wednesday...but higher along the coastal parishes.

More stable and slightly drier air should move into the region Thursday and Friday further knocking down our rain chances to the 20-30% range.

Moving into the weekend, there are signs of a slightly more unstable atmosphere lending credence to a few more afternoon storms, but the trend has been for lower rain chances, in particular from the European model, so 30% for Saturday and Sunday is appropriate at this time.

It appears that another upper disturbance traveling southward across the region will allow for increased rain chances yet again, early next week.

Temperature-wise expect highs to hold in the 80s Wednesday then push closer to the lower 90s Thursday, Friday and into the weekend.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

Meanwhile in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor two disturbances in the Atlantic Basin.

One system, near Puerto Rico, is expected to move northwestward to the vicinity of the Bahamas and perhaps the Florida Peninsula this weekend, enhancing rain chances to those areas at the least.

The NHC however, gives this system a slim opportunity (10%) for development. Eventually this feature should move back out into the Atlantic.

Another wave, south of the Cape Verde Islands in the far Eastern Atlantic, has a better window for development if the feature persists beyond the next couple of days.

While the NHC gives this system a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days, the European Model has been giving this system better odds of development beyond that window, with potential tropical impacts across the Eastern or Northeastern Caribbean as an organized system in about a week's time.

It remains way too early to speculate where this disturbance may ultimately go, but the Euro Model continues to favor curvature into the Atlantic prior to any U.S. threats...we'll see in bout 10 days.

And in the Central to Eastern Pacific, there are two hurricanes rolling as of Tuesday afternoon: Major Hurricane Erick with 130 mph winds and Flossie with 75 mph winds.

None of these system appear to be a direct threat to land at this point, however, Erick will go south of the Hawaiian Islands later this week as a much weaker tropical storm...some big waves and tropical squalls could impact the islands there by Friday.