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Rain chances going down with temperatures heating up

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Posted at 4:10 PM, Jul 31, 2019
and last updated 2019-07-31 17:10:33-04

For the second half of the work week things will be heating up as highs climb back into the lower 90s with feel like temperatures reaching the upper 90s to near triple digits.

In the upper levels Acadiana will be sandwiched between a high to our west and a weak low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

This will produce a northerly flow aloft pushing down slightly drier air which should limit rain chances down to about 20-30% the next few days.

However, with this northerly flow that could increase the chances for a couple showers to develop over the Basin and push into Iberia and St. Mary parish.

This pattern looks to continue for the weekend, meaning we might finally get a relatively dry weekend, with highs in the low 90s but it is summer in Acadiana so there will still be a slight chance (20-30%) for one or two pop-up showers/storms in the afternoon.

Moving into next week the upper level high will weaken allowing a trough to form over the eastern half of the country allowing a couple waves to dive down over Acadiana increasing our chances (40-50%) for scattered showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday.

In the tropics we are still watching a couple waves in the Atlantic.

The first wave is a cluster of showers and storms between Puerto Rico and the Bahamas that will continue to head towards the east coast of Florida.

The National Hurricane Center is only giving this disturbance a 10% chance of development as it is encountering a decent amount of upper level wind shear but it still could produce heavy rains for parts of Florida this weekend.

The other wave is a board area of showers and storms out in the open Atlantic but as it travels across the ocean towards the Lesser Antilles conditions will become more favorable for development.

The hurricane center is now giving this wave a 60% chance that it could become a tropical depression/storm in the next 5 days.

Right now, most models have this system heading for the Bahamas and riding up along the East Coast but we will be monitoring this closely in case the forecast changes.

Jumping to the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Erick is still hanging on to major hurricane strength at 115 mph but Erick is weakening and will continue to weaken in the coming days as it passes just to the south of the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical storm on Friday.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the waters just south of the big island but as of now no warnings have been issued for any of the islands.

Right on the heals of Hurricane Erick is Tropical Storm Flossie which has sustained winds of 70 mph.

Flossie is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Friday as it tracks towards Hawaii.

The good news is Flossie should weaken again to a tropical storm as it gets closer to Hawaii with the latest track showing Flossie brushing by the northern side of the big island on Monday.