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Northwest Caribbean disturbance could head for Gulf next week...Cooler weekend ahead

Posted at 5:27 PM, Oct 23, 2020
and last updated 2020-10-23 20:24:29-04

While Acadiana will see showers and storms ahead of a cool front into Friday evening, the odds of a new tropical system potentially developing in the Northwest Caribbean this weekend have increased.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) increased the odds of a disturbance developing to 70% Friday afternoon with this system possibly edging its way into the Gulf of Mexico next week.

Even if a legitimate tropical system does develop (next name on the list is "Zeta"), and if it heads toward the Gulf of Mexico, it will encounter strong upper level westerly winds across the Northern Gulf limiting development down the line, and likely pushing the deeper tropical moisture east of the system, and ultimately pushing any system to the east/northeast.

Nonetheless, the Euro & GFS models are indicating that a disorganized system may head for the Northern or Eastern Gulf of Mexico next week with the threat of stronger winds and heavier rains likely to be displaced well east of the center of the system.

At the same time, a strong cold front will be approaching the Acadiana area mid-week all but insuring a limit to any potential tropical or sub-tropical system, and bringing a taste of fall back to the area later next week.

In the near term, expect scattered showers and a few strong thunderstorms for Acadiana into Friday evening ahead of a cool front that will bring our temperatures back to a more seasonable reality.

Lingering clouds, breezy and cooler conditions are expected for the area Saturday with temperatures holding mostly in the lower to mid 70s.

Temperatures will cool into the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The clouds should burn off Sunday to a mostly sunny sky accompanied by temperatures in the mid-upper 70s.

Warmer weather should return early next week ahead of the aforementioned stronger cool front, and potential weather-maker for the mid-week period, followed by a more robust "fall" chill down later next week.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

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