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More active, changeable pattern ahead

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Posted at 5:28 PM, Nov 24, 2020
and last updated 2020-11-24 20:02:04-05

A much more active and changeable pattern is expected for Acadiana into the extended Thanksgiving holiday weekend, and likely for the week that follows.

In the near term, expect a breezy and mild night ahead with the chance of a few passing showers or sprinkles as temperatures hold in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A cool front will push across the Acadiana area midday Wednesday allowing for a good chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms primarily from the morning into the early afternoon hours.

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There could be a few healthy storms along the front, especially from Northern portions of Acadiana on northeastward where the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk (05%) of a few isolated storms that could be capable of producing damaging winds.

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Rain chances should end by the latter part of Wednesday afternoon with some limited sun possible before the day is done.

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Temperatures Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s but should cool back into the mid-50s Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

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The same front will drift back to the north Thursday allowing for more clouds after some early sun and the chance of a few passing light showers with rain chances in the 20% range.

Temperatures for our Thanksgiving afternoon will be in the mid-upper 70s.

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A much more dynamic pattern will come into play by Friday as an increasingly active sub-tropical jet stream moves overhead.

A couple of embedded disturbances within the jet stream will producing an excellent chance of widespread showers and storms at some points this weekend...day and/or night, but timing of our best rain chances are still up in the air.

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Do expect a pretty good chance of showers and storms starting Friday with the risk of stronger storms and soaking rains increasing for Saturday into Sunday.

There could be a more substantial threat of severe storms and some locally heavy rainfall into this weekend but as mentioned earlier, timing still needs to be ironed out.

Several inches of rain will be likely this weekend with models and expert guidance pointing toward 2-5" of rain area-wide...this means there could be isolated spots that see more leading to the possibility of some localized street flooding.

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Fortunately for Acadiana, the area has been quite dry over the last few weeks so the ground should be able to handle rain totals expected...anything more could become problematic.

Nonetheless, the forecasts can and usually do change so stay with KATC for the latest on the potential for severe storms and the heavy rain threat coming this weekend.

A touch of winter-like temperatures should follow this weekend's weather system with temperatures plummeting into the 50s for highs and low-mid 30s for lows for much of next week.

And to top it off, Acadiana could see its first first frost/light freeze of the season for Tuesday or Wednesday mornings of next week.

In between the chill, the Euro model is indicating another quick-hitting weather system toward the end of next week, which could conceivably end with a snow flurry somewhere in the state! But this part of the forecast will almost certainly change.

The bottom line: it appears that the first week of December will really feel like December!

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

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