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Milder with clouds; stormy Friday night/early Saturday

Posted: 6:06 PM, Jan 08, 2020
Updated: 2020-01-08 19:29:40-05
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Rob's weather forecast part 1 01-08-20 6pm
Rob's weather forecast part 2 01-08-20 6pm

Milder temperatures along with increasing clouds and breezier conditions are in the forecast for Acadiana over the next couple of days, while we are still on track for a substantial threat of severe storms late Friday night into early Saturday,

In the near term, expect fair and not as cool conditions Thursday evening with clouds moving in during the overnight hours.

Temperatures will be at their lowest, in the upper 40s to lower 50s around midnight, and then rise into the mid-upper 50s by Thursday morning.

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Expect mostly cloudy, breezy and milder conditions Thursday with temperatures topping out in the lower 70s with a few glimpses of the sun possible from time to time.

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Rain chances will stay low Thursday, but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out, especially going into early Thursday evening (20%).

Friday will become windy (especially as the day wears on) and warmer with temperatures rising into the mid-upper 70s along with a slight chance (30%) of a few passing afternoon showers, possibly a thunderstorm.

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Big storm dynamics will come into play Friday night ahead of a cold front, with very windy conditions developing (gusts to 30-40 mph) along with a few isolated severe storms developing after dark in Eastern Texas and then spreading into Louisiana and Acadiana overnight into early Saturday morning.

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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of Acadiana hatched in for a slight to enhanced risk of severe storms Friday night into Saturday morning with the primary threats being storms containing damaging winds and perhaps a few isolated strong tornadoes in the state, and perhaps for portions of Acadiana, especially in the western and northern parts of our area (meaning Allen, Evangeline, St Landry Parshes northward).

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The most significant severe weather the Friday will be in the hatched line areas

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Prime-time for storms are tentatively set between midnight Friday through 9am Saturday...but this window could change.

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Storms containing damaging winds, in excess of 70 mph and rotating supercells (discrete/loner cells ahead of a squall line) and then with an actual squall line that should produce 40-50 mph wind gusts or higher for most of us, with isolated gusts to 70-80 mph possible.

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Those same strong surface winds (pushing gusts to 30-40mph even away from the storms) will also push tides a couple of feet above normal along the coast with some tidal inundation possible From Intracoastal City, to Delcambre, the ports of Iberia and St Mary, and Cypremort Point.

In addition, per the SPC the tornado dynamics will be quite robust going into late Friday night/early Saturday, especially into the northern portions of Acadiana through Central and Northern Louisiana where a few isolated long-tracked, intense (EF2) or stronger tornadoes could be possible.

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In all likelihood, expect tornado watches for the area Friday evening/night into early Saturday.

The storms will advance east of the Acadiana are by mid to late morning with some sunshine even possible by Saturday afternoon.

Due to the progressive nature of the storms, anywhere from 1-3" of rain is anticipated and flooding (other than some localized street inundations) are not anticipated.

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Interestingly enough, while we'll catch a break and have a pretty nice day Sunday, a rather wet and unsettled pattern is shaping up next week with daily rain chances a good bet Monday through Thursday with rain accumulations of several inches likely per the Euro Model accumulation over the next 10 days.

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See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest, and stay apprised of developing weather conditions into Friday night.