Hurricane watches are now posted for Intracoastal City on eastward.
We continue to see a shift in the track to the north and east with Marco this evening as the system continues to become better organized.
The upper-level set-up remains quite complex, but here is what we are looking at.
A slightly stronger Bermuda High is positioned off to our west which will continue to nudge Laura south in the near term and eventually guide the system to the west as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
We also see a trough of low pressure extending into the Gulf of Mexico which will have more of an influence on Marco in the short term.
Since Marco has completely bypassed the Yucatan Peninsula, it has spent more time over water and thus was able to get a little better organized.
Now a slightly stronger system like this is more able to 'feel' that weakness aloft and more likely to be drawn northward. This is indeed what we are seeing with the models this afternoon as well as the 4 pm updated hurricane center track.
Overall impacts to Acadiana, including surge impacts, would be much lower if the current track holds. We'll continue to monitor closely. Landfall would be sometime late Monday afternoon and into Monday evening.
Tropical Storm Laura will have to battle land interaction with the Caribbean islands in the next day or so, so intensification will be limited in the short term.
Then the intensity forecast gets a bit tricky once it enters the Gulf of Mexico where water temperature will be plenty warm enough and environmental conditions will be at least somewhat conducive for further development.
The latest track has the center of Laura making landfall in south/central Louisiana sometime mid-week as a category one hurricane. But keep in mind that the intensity forecast is subject to change and expect the track forecast to continue to wobble back and forth a bit.
Tides are expected to rise through the course of the week and will be heavily dependent on the eventual tracks of the storms. At this time, the heaviest of the rainfall would likely be more associated with Laura a little later on in the week.
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