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Hot weekend; rainy week to follow

Posted at 5:44 PM, Jun 19, 2020
and last updated 2020-06-19 23:45:04-04

Acadiana's weather will be commensurate with the beginning of astronomical summer this weekend with lots of sunshine and hot temperatures topping out in the lower to in some places the mid-90s.

The summer solstice, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted mostly directly toward the sun, will occur at 4:43 pm Saturday.

Look for mostly sunny skies with rain chance less than 10% Saturday accompanied by afternoon highs reaching the 92-94 degree F mark.

Sunday will be much the same, and perhaps a degree or two less hot, with the exception of a few more afternoon storms possible (at 20-30%), thanks to moisture beginning to increase across the region from the southwest as high pressure slips closer toward the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida.

It gets much more interesting, cloudy and rather wet next week with increasing rain chances likely through mid-week...

We'll start with a very weak and disorganized tropical wave approaching the Eastern Caribbean Friday that's been running on the forefront (western edge) of the African Dust that's traversing the Atlantic.

The wave is encountering strong shear aloft, and the dust, but could survive at least in part, and push toward the Southern Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

In addition, atmospheric moisture will begin to pool in the Gulf as the aforementioned high pressure system begins to deliver more tropical air from the south to the region.

It appears that it all comes together in a rather disorganized fashion by mid-week with the threat of locally very heavy tropical rains, primarily ear-marked for the Western Gulf of Mexico including Eastern Texas, per today's models.

But Acadiana will likely see some rather dreary and potentially prolonged stormy days mid-next week that could result in some localized heavy rainfall.

The Euro Model has been pointing toward multi-day rain totals approaching 10" or more across Eastern Texas and its immediate coast, while Acadiana might expect several inches, perhaps in the 2-4 inch range or more, especially on the highest rain chance days, which appears to be Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week.

This is something to watch going into next week as a slight shift in the pattern could translate to much higher, or possibly even lower, rain chances and amounts.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

Elsewhere in the tropics, it remains quiet, and the expected African Dust that could arrive to our shores in about a week, could ultimately aid in lowering our rain chances and make for hazy summer skies next weekend.

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