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Hot, mostly dry weekend for Acadiana while Dorian strengthens and weak Gulf system possible

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Posted at 4:10 PM, Aug 30, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-30 21:37:39-04

UPDATE: Hurricane Dorian is now an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

UPDATE: 7PM Dorian Advisory: Up to 125 mph sustained winds with well defined eye and symmetric satellite appearance. No change to the track/intensity forecast with a full update coming up at 10pm CDT.

Earlier Article:

While the Labor Day Holiday Weekend will be hot and mostly dry for Acadiana, all eyes remain on major Hurricane Dorian, while a weak westward-moving low pressure system could develop in the Gulf of Mexico.

Mostly sunny and hot weather with lower humidity is expected locally through Sunday but a few tropical showers may poke into Southeast Louisiana and perhaps St Mary Parish (20%) Sunday afternoon.

A few more showers will be possible along the coastal parishes Monday (near 30%) as weak low pressure works it's way westward across the Gulf of Mexico.

A disorganized broad area of low pressure near Cuba Friday will travel westward through the weekend with no direct impacts expected in Louisiana with the exception of breezier conditions developing in the offshore waters through Monday.e

The Gulf system has limited potential for development and should be mainly a rain-maker for portions of Mexico and perhaps South Texas early next week.

Overall, just expect a hotter and drier than normal weather pattern for Acadiana through the next 10 days.

Hurricane Dorian became a major hurricane Friday with 115 mph winds as the 4pm advisory. Dorian is expected to continue to strengthen to a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds as it approaches and impacts the Northern Bahamas Sunday, Monday and perhaps Tuesday, and then the east coast of the Florida Peninsula Monday through Wednesday at least.

The European Model Friday offered a glimmer of hope stalling Dorian just offshore the Florida coast before turning northward paralleling the Florida, Georgia and Carolina coasts through much of next week.

In response, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) shifted Dorian's track a little to the right when it nears Florida...partially in deference to the Euro model.

But the question remains when will guiding Atlantic ridge breakdown for the slowing and northward turn.

Per the NHC: "Given the collapse of the steering currents, the track forecast by the end of the forecast period is highly uncertain, and any small deviation in the track could bring the core of the powerful hurricane well inland over the Florida, keep it near the coast, or offshore."

Dorian is expected to be packing 140 mph winds when it nears the Bahamas and Florida East Coast.

Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Northwestern Bahamas.

Nonetheless, however it may play out, residents in the Northern Bahamas, the Eastern half of the Florida Peninsula and coastal states farther to the north need to prepare for hurricane conditions, with major, devastating hurricane conditions a very real possibility along the immediate coastal areas.