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High heat, few storms into weekend but changes are coming

Posted at 5:33 PM, Sep 08, 2020
and last updated 2020-09-08 23:41:43-04

More late summer heat remains in the forecast for Acadiana into the weekend with afternoon highs pushing the mid-90s, particularly from Thursday through Saturday.

Prospects of a brief/cooling afternoon and/or early evening storm should improve to near 20% Wednesday and Thursday, but will likely drop between 0 and 10% Friday into Saturday.

Look for highs Wednesday in the lower 90s, and then in the low-mid 90s Thursday into the weekend as northeasterly winds kick in, which will likely take out any cooling effects from the sea breeze we normally receive from the Gulf of Mexico.

Heat indices should reach back into the lower 100s over the next few days and may push 105° again into the weekend...which would be a little obscene for the second week of September!

The pattern looks to begin to change late in the weekend into next week as more atmospheric moisture and instability should lead to at least a better chance of scattered afternoon storms into early next week.

By mid-next week deeper tropical moisture pooling in the Gulf of Mexico should yield higher local rain chances, possibly accompanied by some locally heavy downpours, and should cap our daytime highs closer to the mid-upper 80s...not a front but at least not as hot.

At this time, no legitimate fall fronts are on the horizon for Acadiana through the next 7-10 days.

Meanwhile, the tropics remain active, with two storms and two suspect areas as of Tuesday afternoon.

While tropical storms Paulette and Rene should stay out to sea, an area of disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda will drift toward the Carolinas later this week.

For now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives this system no more than a 40% chance for some modest development.

Another wave that is expected to emerge off of the African Coast has a high (70%) chance of development (per the NHC), once the system emerges over open water later this week.

This system, potentially "Sally", is expected to make the trans-Atlantic tropical trek and could threaten portions of the Caribbean in about a week's time...from there is the possibility it could become a Southeast U.S. and/or Gulf threat in roughly two weeks time.

In addition to the aforementioned system, long-range models suggest that another system or two (Teddy and Vicky?) will be coming off of the African Coast over the next 8-10 Days...and closer to home, there will already be lots of tropical moisture in the Gulf of Mexico, which could come under the influence f broad, but likely disorganized low pressure.

The peak of hurricane season is here, and likely to stay for the next 4 weeks...

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