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Heat's on this weekend; something could be up in the Gulf next week

Posted: 5:32 PM, Jul 04, 2019
Updated: 2019-07-04 19:23:39-04

A strong upper level and surface ridge of high pressure will continue to build over Acadiana into this weekend allowing for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 90s.

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Look for mostly sunny and hazy skies (thanks to persistent African Dust in the region) Friday and Saturday with temperatures reaching the mid-90s Friday and likely rising a couple of degrees Saturday.

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High temperatures into this weekend will be guided by surface winds...as long as they remain southerly to southwesterly, the Gulf of Mexico will cap our temperatures in the mid-90s.

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Starting Saturday and continuing at least through Sunday, surface winds will be mostly west-northwesterly with perhaps a southwest sea-breeze kicking in for the late afternoon.

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Temperatures in Lafayette Saturday will likely push the 96-97F degree mark and perhaps near 97-98F on Sunday...it will be cooler closer to the coast, but the farther north one goes in the Acadiana region, the closer to 100 degrees will be possible...especially Sunday.

Daily heat indices through early next week will likely be in the 103-108F degree range, so stay hydrated and take A/C breaks often.

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Rain chances through Sunday will be near 10% or less.

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Moving into next week the ridge of high pressure will begin to flatten allowing for perhaps a few disturbances aloft drifting southeastward into the area, so rain chances should perk up from near 20% Monday/Tuesday to the 30-40% range by mid-week. Rain chances could go higher toward the end of next week...

There have been consistent computer model signs that deep tropical moisture may begin to pool in the Northern or Northeastern Gulf of Mexico mid-late next week.

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This deep tropical moisture may meander for a couple of days and could produce very heavy, possible flooding rainfall somewhere along the Gulf Coast.

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The European Model actually develops this system into a tropical depression or possibly a storm (as of the Thursday morning model run), and then advances the system northeastward through the Florida Panhandle for next weekend, while the GFS Model maintains a weaker system, and drifts it westward toward Louisiana and Texas during the same time-frame.

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For now this possible system bears watch, development or not, some heavy rains may indeed be queuing up somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico in about a week's time.