After a frosty start to the day, plenty of sunshine allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 50s Tuesday afternoon, but Acadiana's weather will likely be going from cool and dry to breezy and wet into Wednesday and especially, Wednesday night.
In the near term, it won't be quite as cold Tuesday night thanks to breezy easterly winds kicking in after midnight.
Nonetheless, most areas will see temperatures bottoming-out in the mid-upper 30s...and just above the frost zone in most cases.
In fact, our lowest temperatures overnight will likely occur within an hour or two of midnight, then slowly rise into the low to mid-40s by daybreak Wednesday.
An approaching upper level disturbance will produce a surface low couplet from Texas to the Western Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, and as the feature moves eastward expect some sun early to be followed by increasing cloud cover through midday, with periods of rain and showers not far behind into Wednesday evening.
Before then, as high pressure moves well to our east and low pressure gets cranking to the west, breezy southeasterly winds near 15-25 with gusts to 30 mph will kick in across Acadiana.
And as a result, our temperatures will be milder Wednesday with highs pushing back into the mid-upper 60s before clouds thicken and showers arrive in the afternoon.
Acadiana's highest rain chances (near 90%) will arrive Wednesday night with the chance of soaking rains and a few embedded storms primarily over the coastal parishes.
There is wide model variance on the expected rainfall totals with the latest high resolution GRAF Model suggesting most rains a quarter inch or less, with totals of up to 1-2" near the coast.
Meanwhile, the normally more reliable Euro Model (which has not had the best track record of late) is going for a much bigger soaking with 1-3" or more in isolated spots.
The GFS Model compromises between the two and so does our forecast, with 1-2" or less the best forecast call at this time.
Lingering showers will likely continue into Thursday with a slow improvement expected from west to east during the afternoon.
Temperatures will hold in the 50s Wednesday night and likely stay there through Thursday.
Drier, breezy and cooler conditions should follow into Friday while the weekend is looking seasonably cool and dry.
Look for mostly sunny skies Saturday followed by plenty of high clouds Sunday...highs will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s this weekend while overnight lows drop into the crisp mid-upper 30s.
The forecast into next week appears relatively benign and cool (with no overt "weather-makers") for the most part, but a warming trend is anticipated toward the end of next week.
See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.
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