It's looking to be a stormy finish to 2020 for Acadiana Thursday with a slight risk of severe storms (level 2 out of 5) forecast for the area; isolated tornadoes & damaging winds will be the primary threats with a potent low pressure system that will traverse the state from the southwest to the northeast.
In the near term, breezy and mild conditions will persist into Wednesday with the chance of scattered, short-lived showers traveling from the south to north.
Best rain chances Wednesday (near 50/50) will be primarily during the morning through the early afternoon hours.
Temperatures will rise into the low-mid 70s area-wide Wednesday...and with the chance of more sun in the latter part of the afternoon, it could be rather pleasant late in the day.
It will become breezier Wednesday with southerly winds increasing 15-22 mph with gusts up to 25-28 mph possible.
The winds stay up and eventually they get rather strong Thursday as low pressure advance through the area. Wind gusts are expected to push the 35-45 mph range in and near storms Thursday.
And this system will have most of the ingredients for severe weather (and looks to be the most potent system to date this fall/winter).
The Storm Prediction Center has all of Acadiana hatched in for a slight risk of severe storms with some individual "loner" or discrete cells ahead of a developing squall line in Texas could produce a few isolated tornadoes anytime from mid-morning into the evening hours Thursday.
A squall line will follow later into the afternoon or early evening with strong storms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a few more embedded isolated tornadoes.
The only inhibiting factor for severe weather development Thursday will be the severe storm-killing, stable (and cool) winter marine layer coming in from the Gulf of Mexico. This factor also tends to keep rotating storms (which we most certainly will see) from reaching the ground.
This storm system however, may have enough upper level dynamics in play to overcome the severe weather inhibitors, and at the every least expect a tornado watch for the area Thursday.
Prime-time for Thursday's storminess will be from mid-morning into the early evening, with timing expected to change and likely be more accurate in Wednesday's forecast.
Rainfall with this system should not be problematic with regards to any flood potential, with most areas receiving 1-2"or less, with a few isolated spots possibly seeing a little more.
Showers and storms should taper during the evening of New year's Eve with hopefully drier (albeit with chillier temperatures) moving into the area closer to midnight.
Sunny, breezy and cool conditions can be expected Friday with yet another upper level system possibly producing some clouds and perhaps sprinkles and/or light showers Friday night into early Saturday.
If sun does not return late Saturday (which it currently is) sunshine will certainly return in earnest for Sunday.
This weekend will be cool with highs expected to be mostly in the 50s while night-time/morning lows dip into the mid-upper 30s for Sunday morning.
Consult the KATC 10 Day forecast for the latest.
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