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Early summer pattern continues; weekend changes

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Posted at 3:39 PM, May 16, 2022

Acadiana's early summer pattern will continue this week with a change arriving by the weekend allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

In the near term, high pressure at the surface in the Gulf of Mexico and aloft from Mexico to Texas, will be the dominant features in our forecast.

The ridge of high pressure will keep our rain chances near 10% or less through much of the week while daytime highs climb into the lower 90s each afternoon.

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Overnight/morning lows will stay in the lower 70s.

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The upper level ridging will begin to flatten by the weekend allowing for the chance of scattered primarily afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend with rain chances increasing to 30-40%.

At least, scattered showers and storms this weekend will take a little edge off of the heat.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.

Interestingly enough, through mid-month, May 2022 is currently ranking 9th in the hottest Mays on record...a trend not likely to change (and perhaps amplify) in the second half of the month.

Meanwhile, in the tropics, it remains quiet.

It does appear that deeper tropical moisture pooling in the Western Caribbean combined with the Central American Gyre or "CAG", a broad area of low pressure that spans both oceans, may sling some moisture toward the Gulf by the weekend.

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The Euro model is beginning to warm to some tropical organization in the Southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche by next Monday, while the GFS remains insistent on more robust development near the Yucatan.

We'll keep an eye on this possible feature but nothing to worry about in Louisiana at this time.

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