A disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico began garnering some attention from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Thursday evening.
The NHC is giving the disturbance a marginal, 20% chance of development as it gets drawn toward the Texas Coast late Friday or Friday night.
While this system is not expected to be a potent one, the disturbance could enhance the ongoing flood threats across Southern Louisiana, and especially Southwestern Louisiana into Southeast Texas into the weekend.
If the system would get more organized, it could draw some of the deeper tropical moisture plaguing the area this week farther out into the Gulf of Mexico prior to landfall.
On the other hand, if it remains rather disorganized, which is more likely at this time, it could lead to more training showers and storms that could result in more serious flooding across portions of Louisiana, especially toward the southwest part of the state that has already been inundated with more the 20" of rain in spots.
In addition, the pressure gradient between the disturbance in the Gulf and high pressure banking in from the east, elevated tides of several feet will likely inundate portions of the Louisiana Coast through Saturday.
The aforementioned high pressure system will also ensure that this feature heads primarily toward Texas and not Louisiana.
Development or not, and with another system possibly getting upgraded in the Mid-Atlantic soon, the start of tropical/hurricane season appears to be underway, albeit roughly 10 days early.
The first names on the list from the NHC this year are Ana and Bill.
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