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Dew points/humidity down; tropics heating-up

Posted at 5:41 PM, Aug 17, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-22 15:40:08-04

Acadiana's weather pattern will be rather sedate this week, while the tropics look to get increasingly active toward the weekend.

In the wake of a weak frontal boundary, local dew points and relative humidity (along with rain chances) were lower for most of the area Monday...and this pattern should continue through mid-week.

Highs will be reaching the low-mid 90s over the next couple of days while the humidity stays rather tolerable thanks to light northerly winds.

By the end of the week, more atmospheric weakness aloft combined with higher moisture levels returning from the east-southeast should allow for a better chance of scattered afternoon storms, but for now, rain chances shouldn't too much higher than 30-40%.

See the KATC 10 Day forecast for the latest.

Meanwhile in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is tracking two potential systems that could become trouble-makers.

A disturbance approaching the Eastern Caribbean Monday remain disorganized but the system may encounter more conducive conditions for development in the Northwest Caribbean, prior reaching the Gulf of Mexico.

Although it seems fairly certain that this disturbance will be heading for the Gulf, it remains too early to tell on whether this system could impact Acadiana and/or Louisiana, or anywhere along the US. Gulf Coast for that matter, and it what form, so a watchful eye remains.

The NHC gives this system a 50% chance of developing.

Farther east, a stronger and more organized system in the mid-tropical Atlantic shows plenty of development potential, and could ultimately be the first 'major" storm of the season....and again, it remains too early to estimate if any areas in the Caribbean, and perhaps elsewhere may be impacted by this system.

The NHC gives this disturbance a 70% chance of development by the end of the week.

While the GFS model show these systems, nearly back-back, heading for the Gulf of Mexico, the latest Euro Model suggests that the latter, stronger system may see a break in a ridge of high pressure by the Bahamas that could allow it to make a northward turn prior to threatening the Gulf...but that's not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination.

Threats or not, these system are a remainder that the prime of hurricane season is here for the better part of the next 6-8 weeks and all should have a hurricane plan in place for any threats going into next week...and for the rest of what is expected to be, a very busy season.

The next names on the Atlantic Basin list are "Laura" and "Marco".

Climate Notes: On this day 51 years ago Hurricane Camille made landfall near Waveland, Mississippi and clipping Southeast Louisiana as a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained wind speed near 174 mph and a 20 foot plus storm surge along the Mississippi Coast wiping everything out in its path.

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