UPDATE (1 p.m.): Tropical Depression 19 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Sally with winds of 40 mph as of the p.m. advisory. A new track forecast comes out at 4 p.m.
Tropical Depression 19 located off the Southwest Coast of Florida is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and head for the Northern Gulf Coast early next week.
The storm could threaten Southeast/Eastern Louisiana and coastal Mississippi as a category 1 hurricane, perhaps something stronger, late Monday into early Tuesday.
The storm will be slowing as it approached the coast early next week likely enhancing the flooding rain and perhaps surge potential.
At this point, while Acadiana is not in the clear for possible impacts of this system, and for now there would be minimal impacts...but changes in the forecast track and/or intensity could bring much higher impacts to our area.
Acadiana however, remains in the cone of uncertainty at this time.
If the storm intensifies and slows as expected, it could bring enhanced storm surge dynamics to Eastern/Southeastern Louisiana into Mississippi and eventually could be a prodigious rain-maker with up to 10-20" or more possible near and east of the center of this system.
Early ballpark surge estimates could be in the 8-1`2 foot range for Eastern Louisiana and perhaps closer to 6-10 feet along the Mississippi Coast...these numbers are preliminary with official forecasts coming from the National Hurricane Center when tropical (likely hurricane) "watches" are posted, which could be as early as later today or early Sunday.
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