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Daily rain chances continue; heavy tropical rain threat possible this weekend

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Posted at 4:43 PM, Aug 20, 2019
and last updated 2019-08-20 17:43:59-04

The daily deluges in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for Acadiana for the rest of the week, with the possibility of higher rain chances and the threat of very heavy rains courtesy of a tropical wave possible this weekend.

In the near term, daily rain chances for Acadiana will stay in the 50-60% range through Friday with most activity coming during the afternoon hours.

Temperatures will continue to be limited by the active pattern with daytime highs expected to stay in the mid to upper 80s.

Meanwhile in the tropics, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean following by an upper level low that was located over the Yucatan Penisnula Tuesday will advance into the Southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, and then the Western Gulf Thursday.

This feature is expected to advance northward toward the Louisiana coast late Friday into the weekend and bring with it the threat of some very heavy rainfall.

While conditions are not favorable for tropical development (there is a very low chance (10-20%) of a tropical depression forming near our coast), a slug of tropical moisture and instability will likely poke into some portions of Southern Louisiana this weekend.

While still 5 days out, there are increasing signals that a 5"+ rain could be in the cards for some in Acadiana this weekend, especially along and south of the I-10 Corridor) but where the heavy rains manifest is way too premature to call.

It should be noted that today's Euro model, has a swath of and 8-12" rainfall edging into Vermilion and Acadia Parishes this weekend.

Now these forecast numbers and location of heavy rainfall will change in future model runs and in the days ahead, but this is a red flag that the threat of flooding rains could be a possibility somewhere in Acadiana and/or Southern/Eastern Louisiana this weekend...stay tuned.

After the initial threat of heavy rainfall, it appears that a more typical summer scenario, still with the risk of some afternoon storms, are in the cards for next week.

See the KATC 10 Day Forecast for the latest.