The cold air was lurking not too far away over the last couple of days, but we were lacking upper-level energy to help give it that extra little push farther south.
That started to change on Thursday as an upper-level feature began to approach from the west.
This disturbance, working in conjunction with an active subtropical jet stream, helped to deliver on the showers and storms this morning.
Most areas picked up around 1-3 inches of rain with some spots even picking up closer to 4+ inches.
Many of us got a break this afternoon from the rain, but scattered showers will be back for at least parts of the evening/overnight period.
It will be considerably colder as temperatures will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Breezy northerly winds will put wind chills in the lower 30s by Friday morning, so make sure to bundle up if you are heading out the door.
It will be cold and damp for Friday as highs remain in the 40s with wind chills remaining in the 30s.
Overrunning moisture is expected throughout the day which means misty light sprinkles/showers will remain in the forecast.
Nothing overly significant nor will it be raining necessarily all day, but still setting up for a pretty dreary day out there.
Temperatures stay cold as we head into the weekend with lows in the 30s and highs only getting into the 40s.
Few spotty light showers possible on Saturday and we may even see some
sleet pellets/freezing rain late Saturday into early Sunday morning.
This does not appear like something that will cause any issues nor are we expecting anything to accumulate during this particular time period, but something we will keep an eye on.
Our next system will begin approach on Monday, and with cold air already in place, this is the system that will give us the best chance to see winter precipitation.
Taking a quick look at the atmospheric profile for Monday, the most likely mode of precipitation across the area will be Freezing Rain/Sleet.
It appears it will be too warm aloft to see any snow, but we can not rule out a few flurries flying in the sky on the backside of this system, although that solution appears unlikely.
Models still differ on temperatures during this time period as well with the Euro still showing slightly milder readings.
However, if temperatures are able to be at or below freezing (as advertised by the GFS) then the risk of accumulating ICE will become an issue.
The GFS has been the most aggressive with showing around .10"-.40" accumulating ice across the area.
The Euro has been showing more of a cold rain solution for the region but has been trending on setting up the winter precipitation farther to the south in recent runs.
Regardless, icy roads/black ice will be a major concern going into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will be plummeting into the teens to lower-mid 20s Tuesday morning with wind chills possibly in the single digits!
Travel is likely going to become treacherous as roads will be slick.
Something to keep in mind if you had planned on traveling for early next week.
We stay rather cold for the better part of next week and may not actually be done with hard freezes for the week.
We will see yet another system moving in for mid/late week and that will give us another chance to see precipitation.
As of now, it appears like mainly a cold rain with this system, but some form of winter precipitation is still in the mix for a possible solution.
We are still a ways out from that one, so we will watch how the trends evolve in the days ahead.
In the short term, you should be finishing up wrapping up any exposed pipes you may have in preparation for the frigid air next week.
Y'all have a good weekend and stay warm out there!
